WEATHER ALERT
Please see below about the impending storm and its affects on the coast. Shared from our friends at the Scituate Coastal Coalition:
The National Weather Service is saying that near blizzard conditions may occur at the height of the storm tomorrow night and travel might be nearly impossible. One of the concerns must be frozen pipes. It will be brutally cold on Friday night into Saturday.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING…
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND THE RELATIVELY LONG DURATION AND FETCH OF NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR MULTIPLE HIGH TIDE CYCLES. WE DECIDED TO ADDRESS THE HEADLINES WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ONLY THE MIDDAY THURSDAY HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING DURING EITHER OF THE THURSDAY NIGHT OR MIDDAY FRIDAY HIGH TIDES. 01/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR WINDS TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTH BEFORE THE FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. WHILE THIS WILL REDUCE THE RISK OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR MOST OF THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COASTLINE… THERE IS STILL A RISK FOR MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF BOSTON INTO SANDWICH. USING BOSTON AS AN INDEX…NOTE THAT ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE VERY HIGH WITH 12.2 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AT BOSTON THURSDAY AND FRI…AT 11:22 AM AND 12:15 PM RESPECTIVELY. THERE ALSO IS A 10.9 FOOT HIGH TIDE AT BOSTON THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS USUAL IN THESE SITUATIONS…HAVE GONE ABOVE BOTH THE ETSS AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE BASED ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN RECOGNITION. BELIEVE ENOUGH GRADIENT AND FETCH TO SUPPORT A STORM SURGE OF 0.5 TO 0.75 FT MIDDAY THURSDAY…INCREASING TO 1.0 TO 2.0 FT FOR BOTH THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MIDDAY TIDES…HIGHEST S OF BOSTON. THE SURGE MAY ACTUALLY MAX OUT 2 TO 3 FT S OF BOSTON FRIDAY MORNING…BUT DURING THE LOW TIDE CYCLE. SHOULD WINDS NOT SHIFT NORTH AS QUICKLY AS WE EXPECT FRIDAY MORNING…MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING WOULD RESULT. SEAS JUST OFFSHORE ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ABOUT 15 FT DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE AND 15 TO 20 FT AT THE TIME OF THE MIDDAY FRIDAY HIGH TIDE. THE FRIDAY MIDDAY SEAS WILL CONTAIN LONGER PERIOD SWELLS THAT BRING MORE ENERGY TO THE SHORE. IN SUMMARY…THIS IS ALL LIKELY TO RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE MIDDAY THURSDAY HIGH TIDE…AND MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE. AT THIS TIME FOR THE MIDDAY FRIDAY HIGH TIDE…WE ARE PROJECTING MINOR TO ISOLATED MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING NORTH OF BOSTON AND AREAS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING SOUTH OF BOSTON. THERE REMAINS A RISK…ALBEIT LOOKING LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO…OF POCKETS OF MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING FROM HULL THROUGH SANDWICH AND NANTUCKET…ESPECIALLY IF THIS STORM SHOULD END UP BEING JUST A TAD SLOWER PULLING AWAY FROM OUR COASTLINE. ALL VULNERABLE MA EAST-FACING SHORELINES WILL HAVE A RISK OF SOME BEACH EROSION GIVEN THE HIGH WATER LEVELS AND WAVE ACTION OVER SUCCESSIVE TIDES. THE AREAS OF COASTLINE PRONE TO MORE SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION INCLUDE THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY COAST…THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CAPE INCLUDING SANDWICH…THE OUTER CAPE OCEANSIDE AND THE EAST SIDE OF NANTUCKET. NOT EXPECTING ANY COASTAL FLOODING PROBLEMS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST GIVEN WIND DIRECTION AND EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS STORM.
